Copper: What the Commercial Traders Say

On numerous occasions, we have stated our position that seasonal strength in our precious metals is likely to develop in August and into September, with prices likely to rally into October or possibly later. This expectation is based on well-established and highly accurate seasonal tendencies for precious metals to rally during this time of the year.

Our recommendations in all precious metals remain pending. In other words, we are waiting for buy triggers which will confirm that the seasonal uptrends are likely to be starting. Given the exceptionally low level of bullish sentiment on these markets, the recoveries, should they occur, could be dramatic.

It should be noted that in copper, commercial buying activity continues and is a major feature fundamentally; one which should not be ignored by those eager to stay short or get short copper in its various forms. Stocks such as FCX, Rio Tinto, Silver Wheaton, and others are in our crosshairs for possible recommendations very soon. Given the intense degree of negative sentiment on all metals, we would not be surprised to see a $60-$80 up move in gold prices and $2 or more up move in silver prices in one day in the not-too-distant future.

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